1) I tried to go to Settlers Cafe, but it was closed.
2) I had a great interview yesterday at a wonderful non-profit that works for women's empowerment.
3) Sarah Goldfein told me yesterday that she is coming to Singapore TODAY!
4) Splinter (the cat) is so fricken cute, and keep walking into our apartment.
5) Probability help, please
Expanded:
1) Around the time that we found out that we were moving here, Ruthie came over and played some Settlers of Catan (and won, I believe). She understands how much I love that game, and she got nervous for me about moving to Singapore with less of a chance of playing Settlers. She is also obsessed with Google. She therefore Googled "Settlers of Catan" and Singapore, and she found that there is a cafe here called Settlers Cafe - with three locations, and it's built around playing games (and on the website, you can see a picture of Settlers of Catan!). There's actually one pretty close to our house. We have been by it a bunch, but we haven't yet been inside. It's sort of like holy ground, and once we go in, it becomes real...Anyways I decided to take that chance earlier this week, and it was closed.
2) I had my first Singaporean interview yesterday. I was interviewed by two people: the head of the center and one of the founding board members. They were both amazing women, and I really enjoyed the interview. I definitely hope I get the job, though the pay is really ridiculously low. It would be a 66% decrease in salary. That's crazy.
3) Enough said. She apparently was in Bangkok for work and they're sending her here. I know nothing more, but I can't even tell you how amazing it will feel to see and hug someone that I love (other than Matt, of course). I am so in need, and I am so excited to see her.
4) That cat, Splinter, is just too cute. I finally gave in and started petting her, rather than just looking at her cuteness from a close distance. Matt also pets her, and he made the mistake (though he would not say it's a mistake) of giving her some milk the other night. Well, apparently, she has a good memory, and for the last few nights at around thee same time, she just walks right into our apartment. We keep the front door open and the gate-thing locked, but gates don't stop cats. She isn't scared of us, so when we try to chase her out, she tries to rub up against our legs to get pet. It's too cute, but I don't want her in our apartment. She's really cute. Seriously. And I don't like cats.
5) I have been thinking about probability, and I need some confirmation or help. Here's the problem:
If the chance of rain is 30% daily, and you have six days to have fun at Michigania, what is the probability that it will rain exactly three days, leaving exactly three days for you to have sunny fun?
chance it will rain=p=.3
number of total days=n=6
picked number of days=m=3
I think it's (n choose m)*p^m*(1-p)^(n-m)
= n! * p^m * (1-p)^(n-m)
m!(n-m)!
= 6! * .3^3 * .7^3
3!3!
= 6x5x4 x .027 x .323
3x2
= 20 x .027 x .323
=.008721
Is that right? Can someone please confirm or let me know what isn't right?
ref: http://mathforum.org/library
I think if I could get paid to do math problems everyday, I would be he happiest person. Actually, I would need to do math problems and hug at least two people that I love each day.
2 comments:
Mel!
I asked Dr. Math for help, and he did. I thought that the answer was just the probability that you have a 3 sunny days and 3 rainy days:
.3 x .3 x .3 x .7 x .7 x .7 = .009261
But there is more to it than that, because you need to account for the number of combination of days that can be sunny or rainy. This is exactly what you did (good job!). But for some reason your calculator wasn't working because the numbers you came up with weren't correct. But who cares, because your logic was. You are totally going to rock the GMAT!
For dense Great Expectasia readers (like me), the full answer is below.
Thanks Dr. Greenie (the specific Dr. Math who answered my question)!
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Hi, Markus --
Almost right... but there is something important missing. I would certainly hope that if the probability of rain each day is only 30%,
that the chance of having 3 sunny days out of 6 is greater than 0.9%....
What's missing is that really your calculation
.3 x .3 x .3 x .7 x .7 x .7 = .009261
is for the probability that it rains the first three days and is sunny the last three days. But it might be sunny the first three days and rainy the last three days; the probability for that is
.7 x .7 x .7 x .3 x .3 x .3 = .009261
The number is the same, but it is the probability for rain on a different three days out of the six.
So what is missing is a factor of the number of different ways you can have three out of six days sunny. That number is called (logically enough!) "6 choose 3"; its value is
6! 6*5*4*3*2*1 6*5*4
---------- = -------------- = ----- = 20
(3!)(6-3)! (3*2*1)(3*2*1) 3*2*1
There are 20 different combinations of three out of the six days that can be without rain. So the probability that you hvae three sunny days and three rainy days is
20 * .009261 = .18522
The probability for rain is 50%. Either it will or it won't... :)
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